Isaac Strengthens, Projected Track Shifts West; Joyce Downgraded

***Click here to view my latest post on Isaac***

Tropical Storm Isaac projected path as of 2pm Friday (courtesy of National Hurricane Center)

UPDATED POST: 4pm Friday

According to the National Weather Service, Tropical Storm Isaac has strengthened a little more as it moves toward the southern coast of Hispaniola. It’s centered at midday Friday about 185 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti.

Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph. Some strengthening is forecast before the storm reaches the coast of Haiti.

The forecast track brings the center of the storm near or over Haiti tonight, and near or over eastern and central Cuba on Saturday and Sunday.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches continue for portions of the Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A Hurricane Watch also continues for Haiti. Watches will likely be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today, and possibly portions of South Florida.

It is important not to focus on the exact track due to the uncertainties in the track forecast, and the fact that Isaac has a large area of tropical storm force winds.

PREVIOUS POST BELOW FROM 8pm Thursday:

Tropical Storm Isaac has strengthened slightly, and the projected path has shifted slightly to the west, which could put the central Gulf Coast in jeopardy as well as South Florida next week when the storm approaches.

At 8pm Thursday, Isaac was advancing west-northwest at 16 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, centered almost 200 miles southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph. Strengthening is forecast, and Isaac could become a hurricane on Friday as it nears Haiti, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The forecast track brings the center of Isaac near or over the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Friday, and approaches southeastern Cuba Friday Night.

Midday Friday satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac (photo courtesy of National Hurricane Center)

A Hurricane Warning continues for Haiti. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for other islands, including the south coast of the Dominican Republic, the southeast Bahamas and southeast Cuba.

Interests in Jamaica, the remainder of Cuba, and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the progress of Isaac. Media attention has been pretty intense with the storm, as it poses a potential threat to the 2012 Republican National Convention, which is scheduled to begin Monday in Tampa. There remains a lot of uncertainty about the threat to Florida and other portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from this storm.

The strength of Isaac is also dependent on how much interaction there is between the storm and the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, which could diminish the system. If it does become a hurricane, there is a chance that landfall would weaken Isaac back to a tropical storm.

However, water temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are near record levels in the upper 80s, which could cause rapid intensification when the storm passes through the Florida straits, and Isaac could regain hurricane status.

Tropical Update and Satellite Imagery as of Friday Afternoon (courtesy of National Hurricane Center)

It is still far too early to predict where Isaac will go and what kind of impact the storm could have in Florida and the RNC, if any. The five-day “cone of uncertainty” stretches from Florida’s east coast all the way to southwest of New Orleans.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Joyce became somewhat less organized on Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds were 40mph. It is not a threat to land at this time.

THURSDAY 11pm UPDATE: At 11pm, Joyce was downgraded to a tropical depression. While it could eventually regain tropical storm status, Joyce is not expected to ever become a hurricane or make landfall.

Related articles

• Isaac May Strengthen to Hurricane Before Nearing Florida – San Francisco Chronicle (sfgate.com)
• Hurricane Isaac’s Path Threatening Towards Haiti (wibw.com)
• Tropical Storm Isaac linked to one death; Joyce might be coming (caribbean360.com)
• Tropical Storm Isaac begins moving west-northwest (local10.com)